DEMODEMO graph: 51 sample follows. Not anyone's real X following. X does not give Mila that graph without OAuth.

Credibility Ledger

Did we call it?

When Mila says "this will blow up," it writes the bet down with a date and a pass/fail rule. These bets were logged against the indexed sample, not a live X prediction market. Hash is a content fingerprint of the claim object, not a cryptographic proof that X agreed.

Hit rate

71%

Scored

Hits

2026-03-02hit21d horizon
A fake-celebrity-photo pile would jump from stan accounts into regular news within three weeks.
Criterion: At least 3 national news desks file the same story within 21 days.
Hit in 11 days. Beat the trending tab by about a day and a half.
sha256:led-01
2026-04-11hit14d horizon
One startup-launch joke would get copy-pasted for two weeks.
Criterion: Same joke posted by ≥200 accounts, with more than 40% of posts being near-duplicates, inside 14 days.
Hit. Duplicate fraction 47% — classified as a meme pile, not a real argument.
sha256:led-02
2026-05-06miss10d horizon
A new catchphrase from comedy accounts would become a hashtag labs used.
Criterion: One hashtag used by ≥40 unique comedy accounts in 10 days.
The joke spread. The hashtag did not. Scored a miss on the rule as written.
sha256:led-03
2026-06-01miss30d horizon
A celebrity-breakup rumor would jump from stan accounts into news.
Criterion: News accounts pick it up at ≥ 0.3 crossover within 30 days.
Stayed inside stan accounts. Honest miss.
sha256:led-04
2026-06-22hit7d horizon
A new phone-leak rumor would dominate tech Twitter for a week.
Criterion: Tech cluster velocity ≥ 0.7 and ≥50 unique authors in 7 days.
Hit. The leak was fake. The cluster still heated.
sha256:led-05
2026-07-19hit45d horizon
A TV-finale recap pile would stay inside movie/TV accounts, not go mainstream.
Criterion: Community spread stays under 0.45 for 45 days.
Held. Spread 0.33.
sha256:led-06
2026-08-12hit21d horizon
A no-name song would get quoted by comedy accounts within 3 weeks.
Criterion: ≥15 unique comedy accounts quote the same track in 21 days.
Hit in 14 days.
sha256:led-07
2026-08-22pending29d horizon
The grocery-receipt fight would stay smaller than a national news story through mid-September.
Criterion: Does not hit mainstream; unique authors stay under 40 through 2026-09-20.
On track. 39 unique authors as of snapshot.
sha256:led-08
2026-09-10pending12d horizon
The copy-paste joke pile would peak then die within 12 days instead of becoming a standing meme.
Criterion: Heat falls below 0.35 by day 12.
Still hot. Clock running.
sha256:led-09
2026-09-14pending16d horizon
The football trade rumor will be confirmed or killed by a real reporter this month.
Criterion: A named beat reporter confirms or denies by 2026-09-30.
sha256:led-10
2026-09-16pending14d horizon
The football cluster will cross 500k mainstream mentions within 14 days.
Criterion: Combined news + X mention index ≥ 500k within 14 days of log.
A real clock. If it misses, we mark it missed.
sha256:led-11

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